![]() Since it takes time to receive and process the satellite data as well as generate the image, the time of image may somtimes be different from the time of tropical cyclone analysed position. The infra-red satellite image closest to the time of tropical cyclone analysed position can be shown by pressing the 'Satellite Image' button, below which is the 'Time of image' representing the time when satellite data is completely received at the ground reception system.These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself. Short-term erratic departure of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time.The corresponding radius of 'Potential Track Area' is determined from the statistics in the past years as the mean value. Such real-time positions could deviate from those obtained later through "Best Track Analysis" when more comprehensive sets of observations become available. *Analysed position refers to the positions of tropical cyclones fixed by the Observatory based on observation data available in real time. The size in terms of radius of the 'Potential Track Area' corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years (updated in 2022) and are as shown in the following table: It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. ![]() The area grows as the forecast hour increases. Literally, it means that among 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. By pressing the 'Potential Track Area' button, the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% will be shown.
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